Study: State Energy Cost Comparisons for Movers
Thinking About Moving to Texas, Florida, or Arizona? Utility Bills in The South Could Cost You More!
Movers to Top Ten Destination States May Pay Higher Energy Bills But Find Some Savings
According to the most recent US Census estimates (released March, 2024), ten southern states experienced faster growth in 2023 with about 950 counties (67% of the region) seeing population increases. Of particular note is Texas where eight of the ten counties led the rest of southern states for post pandemic population increases. The largest-gaining county in the nation was Harris County (Houston), Texas, which added 53,788 residents. Plus, six of the fastest growing towns were also in Texas, led by Kaufman (outside of Dallas) which grew by 7.6%.
Many new arrivals came from the top ten states that lost population. In 2023, these were primarily northern states with large metro areas. The largest was Los Angeles County, California, where 56,420 people left; followed by Kings, Queens, and Bronx counties in New York where population dropped by 8,306; 26,362; and 25,332, respectively.
While the post-pandemic trend for Americans to move south continues, many movers don't understand how some of their new utility bills may compare to those they left behind. For example, TexasElectricityRatings.com reports that because the average Texas home uses more than 1,000 kWh during the summer, customers can see monthly bills hitting more than $200 or higher. As a result, this lack of energy comparison can make home budgeting a lot tougher for new residents putting down roots in a new state.
To learn how the utility bills in these ten "destination" states compare to "out-migration" states, we analyzed and compared their rates and consumption data for both electricity and natural gas. What we've discovered is that some destination states may help their new residents save on energy bills while others end up costing them more.
Electricity Prices in Top Ten Destination States:
Where Do You Pay More Or Save?
Our analysis of EIA electricity rates and usage data showed that for 9 out of the 10 destination states, an average residential monthly electric bill tended to be higher than those in the ten population-losing states. On average, movers could expect to pay morefor their electricity when they relocated to (from least to most) Tennessee, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Texas, or Alabama. That said, we did find some specific cases where newcomers might pay less. For example, a Marylander moving to Tennessee could pay about $20.38 lesson their electric bill.
The lone stand out is Idaho. We found that most new residents who left population-losing states could pay around $21.98 lesson their monthly Idaho electric bills compared to their former state.
With the exceptions of Hawaii and Connecticut, the same generalization can be made with most of the other 28 states. That is, most people moving to these top ten destination states can expect to pay more on their electricity bills compared to where they came from. The amounts can range from a few cents to over $82 depending on which state they left.
Why are electric prices in destination states so high?
Each state has different challenges facing its electric utilities so electricity prices are higher for multiple reasons. One key point is that seven of these states use electricity as their primary heating fuel, so demand-driven costs can be high in winter, too. Another factor is the cost of generator fuel and transmission costs to send power to local utilities. Texas, for example, has its own grid that is isolated from the rest of the US so it must generate and transmit practically all of its power alone.
Because natural gas is traded as a world-wide commodity, it's price is often volatile, especially during periods of severe summer or winter weather. Seven of the top ten destination states mainly use natural gas to generate power:
| Destination States Relying on Natural Gas to Generate Power | |
| Florida | 74.5 % |
| Texas | 52.5% |
| North Carolina | 42.4% |
| Georgia | 40.8% |
| Arizona | 47.9% |
| Alabama | 46.0% |
| Oklahoma | 53.3% |
- South Carolina and Tennessee use nuclear power.
- Idaho relies heavily on its abundant hydroelectric resources and other renewables. These help keep rates lower.
How Natural Gas Prices Compared in Top Ten Destination States
According to EIA data, home heating accounts for 42% of residential energy consumption. As a result, when we compared monthly natural gas bills between states, one obvious fact was hard to ignore. Natural gas is primarily used for space heating. But in the southern destination states the primary heating fuel is electricity. New residents not only would likely see milder winters that use less space heating, but they also could ignore using natural gas entirely. As a result, consumers in these states would have much cheaper -- or even non-existent -- monthly natural gas bills.
Our analysis showed that in eight of our ten destination states, new arrivals from the ten population-losing states could save between $6 to over $60 a month on their natural gas costs in their new state. Plus, the cost could be eliminated if new residents didn't bother with natural gas service. Unfortunately, this didn't hold for new residents moving to Georgia and Oklahoma. Because Georgia must pipe-in all its natural gas, its prices tend to be higher than most other states. Conversely, while Oklahoma produces most of the gas it consumes, its intrastate pipeline companies are not covered by federal regulations. This leaves them free to charge customers whatever rate their market will bear. As a result, we found that new residents could pay an average of about $25 to $40 per month more in these states.
As we saw earlier with electric rates, similar relationships with natural gas rates carried over from the other states as well. For example, someone moving from the Midwest to Florida could save from $50 to $125 on their monthly gas bills. New arrivals to Texas from New England states like New Hampshire and Maine might save a measly $2 a month for natural gas heating. But that amount bloomed to about $120 if they had used heating oil. And as before, folks moving into Georgia or Oklahoma from other states would also likely pay more for natural gas.
The Top Five States and Space Heating Savings
One popular assumption used by some south bound movers is that low monthly natural gas bills can make up for the high electricity rates. We decided to use our data to test that assumption by comparing average monthly electricity and gas bills from the five top population-losing states with the top five destination states.
As with many general assumptions, we discovered that the devil is in the details. Here, it depends on where you're coming from and where you're moving to.
Folks moving to Florida from California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, or Massachusetts would likely see their lower natural gas bills help them save on their electricity, cutting their overall utility bills by nearly $49.00. Other states where they would save money were South Carolina ($15.29) and Tennessee ($41.24).
For the same people moving to Texas, they would end up paying $6.66 more. Likewise, if they moved to North Carolina their cost would be higher but only $1.30 more. However, the most expensive was Georgia where higher natural gas costs increased monthly utility bills by a total of $65.45.
Conclusion - Movers Should Compare Energy Costs in New States Carefully!
As more Americans migrate to the sunny southern states, one thing they should keep in mind for their new home is their electricity bills will likely be higher compared to where they moved from. And while it's true that what they may have spent on natural gas in their home state may help reduce their utility bills overall, it's not an iron-clad certainty.
That said, consumers in these ten destination states should also expect that newly arriving residents will hasten the rising demand for power. Electric utilities in these states are already under pressure to find new generation sources, expand service areas, and increase power distribution capacity. All of this will continue the trend of electricity and natural gas utilities passing these costs onto their customers.
Methodology
Domestic Migration information was gathered from CO-EST2023-ALLDATA County Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2023 report released in March, 2024. This information provided the top ten population gaining (or "destination") states and the top ten population losing states in 2023.
Residential price per kilowatt hours was gathered from EIA Electricity Monthly report for July 2024 from Table 5.6.A. "Average Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector". This was then multiplied against kWh average consumption information from the EIA's Table 5.A "2022 Average Monthly Bill- Residential" report to generate an average monthly bill amount for each state.
We then gathered monthly natural gas delivered prices for residential customers for June 2024 from EIA's Data Series for Natural Gas Prices. We converted EIA's MCF prices to the more commonly used "ccf" and them multiplied that price against the total annual natural gas usage data in the EIA's 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (released March, 2023). This provided credible average monthly gas bill amounts for each state.
We then compared electricity and natural gas bill amounts between states. Costs vs savings were calculated by subtracting population losing state bills from destination state bills.
The EIA reports electricity and natural gas utility prices as bundled amounts that combine energy supply charges with distribution charges. Our study follows this method.
Sources
U.S. Census Bureau, CO-EST2023-ALLDATA County Population Estimates
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-counties-total.html
Home Heating Energy Usage
https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press535.php
EIA Electricity Monthly report for July 2024, Tables 5.6.A, released September 24, 2024,
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly
EIA 2022 Average Monthly Bill- Residential (Data from forms EIA-861- schedules 4A-D, EIA-861S and EIA-861U), Table 5A
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/pdf/table_5A.pdf
EIA 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECs), released March, 2023
https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2020/index.php?view=state
EIA Data Series for Natural Gas prices, Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential Consumers (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet MCF)
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_a_EPG0_PRS_DMcf_m.htm